This survey took place between 22-25 July 2016 and was conducted throughout all of Russia in both urban and rural settings. The survey was carried out among 1600 people over the age of 18 in 137 localities of 48 of the country’s regions. The survey was conducted as a personal interview in respondents’ homes. The answer distribution is presented as percentages of the number of participants along with data from previous surveys.
The statistical error of these studies for a selection of 1600 people (with a probability of 0.95) does not exceed:
3.4% for indicators around 50%
2.9% for indicators around 25%
2.0% for indicators around 10%
1.5% for indicators around 5%
WHICH OF THE FOLLOWING STATEMENTS BEST REFLECTS YOUR INTENTIONS TO VOTE IN THE UPCOMING STATE DUMA ELECTIONS? (one answer)
|
Sept. 95 |
Sept. 99 |
Sept. 03 |
Sept. 07 |
Sept. 11 |
Jan. 16 |
Feb. 16 |
Mar. 16 |
April 16 |
May 16 |
June 16 |
July 16 |
|
| I’m sure that I won’t vote in the state Duma elections | 25 | 19 | 16 | 19 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 14 |
| I doubt that I will vote | 13 | 12 | 12 | 14 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 13 | 11 |
| I don’t know if I will vote or not | 17 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 17 | 24 | 20 | 22 | 25 | 26 | 20 | 25 |
| I will probably vote in the State Duma elections | 18 | 16 | 22 | 28 | 32 | 30 | 30 | 32 | 26 | 25 | 27 | 26 |
| I will definitely vote in the elections (of course as long as nothing happens to me before then) | 24 | 37 | 33 | 20 | 24 | 21 | 21 | 19 | 21 | 19 | 21 | 20 |
| It is difficult to say | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 |
IF THE STATE DUMA ELECTIONS TOOK PLACE THIS SUNDAY, WOULD YOU PARTICIPATE IN THEM, AND IF SO, FOR WHICH PARTY WOULD YOU VOTE? (one answer; closed question; as a percentage of ALL THOSE SURVEYED)
| Jan.16 | Feb.16 | Mar.16 | Apr.16 | May.16 | Jun. 16 | Jul.16 | |
| United Russia (D.Medvedev) | 39 | 40 | 40 | 42 | 35 | 35 | 39 |
| Communist Party (CPRF) (G.Zyuganov) | 10 | 10 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 11 | 10 |
| Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) (V.Zhirinovsky) | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 10 |
| A Just Russia (S.Mironov) | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| Republican Party of Russia – People’s Freedom Party (M.Kasyanov) | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | 1 |
|
Russian United Democratic Party “Yabloko” (E.Slabunova) |
<1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | 1 |
| Communists of Russia (M. Suraykin) | – | – | <1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Youth Party (V. Popov)* | – | – | – | – | – | – | <1 |
| Civilian Power (K.Bykanin) | – | – | – | – | 1 | 1 | <1 |
| Party of Growth (B. Titov) | – | – | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
| Russian Ecological Party “The Greens” (A. Panfilov) | – | – | – | – | <1 | <1 | <1 |
| Civic Platform (R.Shaykhutdinov) | 1 | <1 | 1 | 1 | <1 | 1 | <1 |
| Rodina (A. Zhuravlyov) | <1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
| Russian Party of Pensioners for Justice (E. Artyukh) | – | – | – | – | <1 | <1 | <1 |
| Patriots of Russia (G.Semigin) | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
| Other | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | <1 | <1 |
| I would ruin or remove the ballot | – | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| I don’t know for which party I would vote | – | 10 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 11 | 11 |
| I wouldn’t vote | 19 | 16 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 14 | 11 |
| I don’t know if I would vote or not | – | 11 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 10 |
| It is difficult to say | 22 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
IF THE STATE DUMA ELECTIONS TOOK PLACE THIS SUNDAY, WOULD YOU PARTICIPATE IN THEM, AND IF SO, FOR WHICH PARTY WOULD YOU VOTE? (one answer; closed question; as a percentage of those respondents WOULD VOTE AND NAMED A PARTY)
| Jan.16 | Feb.16 | Mar.16 | Apr.16 | May.16 | Jun.16 | Jul.16 | |
| United Russia (D.Medvedev) | 65 | 64 | 59 | 60 | 53 | 55 | 57 |
| Communist Party (CPRF) (G.Zyuganov) | 16 | 17 | 19 | 15 | 21 | 18 | 15 |
| Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) (V.Zhirinovsky) | 8 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 14 | 15 |
| A Just Russia (S.Mironov) | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
| Republican Party of Russia – People’s Freedom Party (M.Kasyanov) | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
|
Russian United Democratic Party “Yabloko” (E.Slabunova) |
1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | 1 | 1 |
| Communists of Russia (M. Suraykin) | – | – | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Youth Party (V. Popov)* | – | – | – | – | – | – | <1 |
| Civilian Power (K.Bykanin) | – | – | – | – | 1 | 1 | <1 |
| Party of Growth (B. Titov) | – | – | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 |
| Russian Ecological Party “The Greens” (A. Panfilov) | – | – | – | – | <1 | <1 | <1 |
| Civic Platform (R.Shaykhutdinov) | 1 | <1 | 1 | 1 | <1 | 1 | <1 |
| Rodina (A. Zhuravlyov) | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | <1 | 1 | <1 |
| Russian Party of Pensioners for Justice (E. Artyukh) | – | – | – | – | <1 | <1 | <1 |
| Patriots of Russia (G.Semigin) | 1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | 1 | <1 | <1 |
| Other | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | <1 | <1 |
| I would ruin or remove the ballot | – | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
* For the sake of experiment, the list given to respondents included an imaginary party, which received 0.3% of votes of all those surveyed.
WHOSE INTERESTS, IN YOUR OPINION, DO THE FOLLOWING PARTIES REPRESENT? (multiple answers)
| CPRF | United Russia | LDPR | A Just Russia | Yabloko | People’s Freedom | |
| “Oligarchs,” bankers, big business | 6 | 30 | 9 | 6 | 12 | 12 |
| “The directors,” CEOs of big enterprises | 6 | 23 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 7 |
| Federal and regional officials, bureacrats | 8 | 26 | 11 | 7 | 7 | 5 |
| “Strongmen,” intelligence agencies, army, police | 3 | 28 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| Cultural and science elite | 7 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 2 |
| The middle class: people with above average salaries | 15 | 13 | 16 | 13 | 6 | 3 |
| The intelligentsia: teachers, doctors, engineers, specialists | 17 | 8 | 11 | 15 | 7 | 3 |
| “The common man”: public servants, workers, agricultural workers | 31 | 8 | 17 | 15 | 3 | 2 |
| The poorest segments of society, the unemployed, the downtrodden | 23 | 3 | 9 | 10 | 2 | 1 |
| Everyone without exception | 15 | 25 | 19 | 14 | 8 | 5 |
| It is difficult to say | 24 | 15 | 27 | 37 | 55 | 71 |
Data over time
WHOSE INTERESTS, IN YOUR OPINION, DOES UNITED RUSSIA REPRESENT? (multiple answers)
| Jun.03 | Jan.04 | Oct.07 | Jul.11 | Jul.16 | |
| “Oligarchs,” bankers, big business | 18 | 18 | 21 | 40 | 30 |
| “Strongmen,” intelligence agencies, army, police | 12 | 22 | 16 | 32 | 28 |
| Federal and regional officials, bureacrats | 16 | 19 | 20 | 34 | 26 |
| Everyone without exception | 5 | 14 | 16 | 20 | 25 |
| “The directors,” CEOs of big enterprises | 15 | 19 | 19 | 32 | 23 |
| The middle class: people with above average salaries | 17 | 22 | 15 | 16 | 13 |
| The intelligentsia: teachers, doctors, engineers, specialists | 10 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 8 |
| “The common man”: public servants, workers, agricultural workers | 16 | 19 | 15 | 11 | 8 |
| Cultural and science elite | 4 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 8 |
| The poorest segments of society, the unemployed, the downtrodden | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| It is difficult to say | 23 | 13 | 20 | 10 | 15 |
WHOSE INTERESTS, IN YOUR OPINION, DOES CPRF REPRESENT? (multiple answers)
| Jun.03 | Jan.04 | Oct.07 | Jul.11 | Jul.16 | |
| “The common man”: public servants, workers, agricultural workers | 37 | 39 | 26 | 40 | 31 |
| The poorest segments of society, the unemployed, the downtrodden | 29 | 27 | 20 | 30 | 23 |
| The intelligentsia: teachers, doctors, engineers, specialists | 15 | 16 | 11 | 20 | 17 |
| The middle class: people with above average salaries | 10 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 15 |
| Everyone without exception | 4 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 15 |
| Federal and regional officials, bureacrats | 6 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 8 |
| Cultural and science elite | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| “The directors,” CEOs of big enterprises | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 |
| “Oligarchs,” bankers, big business | 4 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 6 |
| “Strongmen,” intelligence agencies, army, police | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| It is difficult to say | 22 | 21 | 38 | 23 | 24 |
WHOSE INTERESTS, IN YOUR OPINION, DOES LDPR REPRESENT? (multiple answers)
| Jun.03 | Jan.04 | Oct.07 | Jul.11 | Jul.16 | |
| Everyone without exception | 4 | 9 | 9 | 14 | 19 |
| “The common man”: public servants, workers, agricultural workers | 9 | 22 | 9 | 17 | 17 |
| The middle class: people with above average salaries | 9 | 15 | 10 | 15 | 16 |
| Federal and regional officials, bureacrats | 12 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 11 |
| The intelligentsia: teachers, doctors, engineers, specialists | 4 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 11 |
| “Oligarchs,” bankers, big business | 13 | 8 | 13 | 14 | 9 |
| “The directors,” CEOs of big enterprises | 10 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 9 |
| The poorest segments of society, the unemployed, the downtrodden | 5 | 14 | 5 | 9 | 9 |
| “Strongmen,” intelligence agencies, army, police | 10 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 7 |
| Cultural and science elite | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 7 |
| It is difficult to say | 39 | 29 | 44 | 26 | 27 |
WHOSE INTERESTS, IN YOUR OPINION, DOES A JUST RUSSIA REPRESENT? (multiple answers)
| Jan.04 | Oct.07 | Jul.11 | Jul.16 | |
| “The common man”: public servants, workers, agricultural workers | 29 | 14 | 19 | 15 |
| The intelligentsia: teachers, doctors, engineers, specialists | 15 | 8 | 18 | 15 |
| Everyone without exception | 9 | 7 | 9 | 14 |
| The middle class: people with above average salaries | 15 | 10 | 15 | 13 |
| The poorest segments of society, the unemployed, the downtrodden | 15 | 8 | 8 | 10 |
| Cultural and science elite | 5 | 4 | 9 | 8 |
| Federal and regional officials, bureacrats | 4 | 9 | 9 | 7 |
| “The directors,” CEOs of big enterprises | 3 | 8 | 9 | 6 |
| “Oligarchs,” bankers, big business | 3 | 7 | 7 | 6 |
| “Strongmen,” intelligence agencies, army, police | 7 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| It is difficult to say | 34 | 47 | 37 | 37 |
WHOSE INTERESTS, IN YOUR OPINION, DOES THE PEOPLE’S FREEDOM PARTY REPRESENT? (multiple answers)
| Jul.11 | Jul.16 | |
| “Oligarchs,” bankers, big business | 8 | 12 |
| “The directors,” leaders of big enterprises | 4 | 7 |
| Federal and regional officials, bureacrats | 3 | 5 |
| Everyone without exception | 3 | 5 |
| The intelligentsia: teachers, doctors, engineers, specialists | 2 | 3 |
| The middle class: people with above average salaries | 2 | 3 |
| Cultural and science elite | 1 | 2 |
| “The common man”: public servants, workers, agricultural workers | 2 | 2 |
| The poorest segments of society, the unemployed, the downtrodden | 1 | 1 |
| “Strongmen,” intelligence agencies, army, police | 1 | 1 |
| It is difficult to say | 79 | 71 |
WHOSE INTERESTS, IN YOUR OPINION, DOES YABLOKO REPRESENT? (multiple answers)
| Jun.03 | Jan.04 | Oct.07 | Jul.11 | Jul.16 | |
| “Oligarchs,” bankers, big business | 9 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 12 |
| “The directors,” CEOs of big enterprises | 9 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 9 |
| Everyone without exceptions | 2 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 8 |
| Federal and regional officials, bureacrats | 8 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 7 |
| Cultural and science elite | 16 | 19 | 12 | 11 | 7 |
| The intelligentsia: teachers, doctors, engineers, specialists | 26 | 29 | 11 | 11 | 7 |
| The middle class: people with above average salaries | 19 | 21 | 10 | 7 | 6 |
| “The common man”: public servants, workers, agricultural workers | 7 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| “Strongmen,” intelligence agencies, army, police | 3 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| The poorest segments of society, the unemployed, the downtrodden | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
|
It is difficult to say |
28 | 25 | 49 | 56 | 55 |
Translated by Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey (formerly Monterey Institute of International Studies).