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THE RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

This survey took place between 20-24 October 2017 and was conducted throughout all of Russia in both urban and rural settings. The survey was carried out among 1600 people over the age of 18 in 137 localities of 48 of the country’s regions. The survey was conducted as a personal interview in respondents’ homes. The answer distribution is presented as percentages of the number of participants along with data from previous surveys. The statistical error of these studies for a selection of 1600 people (with a probability of 0.95) does not exceed: 3.4% for indicators around 50%; 2.9% for indicators around 25%/75%; 2.0% for indicators around 10%/90%; 1.5% for indicators around 5%/95%.

Interest in the Election

ARE YOU INTERESTED IN THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION THAT WILL BE HELD IN MARCH 2018?

Oct. 07 Oct. 11 Oct. 17
Definitely 37 32 32
Somewhat 42 38 37
Not really 13 17 18
No 5 9 8
It is difficult to say 3 4 6

DO YOU THINK THAT THE RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION MARCH 2018 COULD IMPROVE YOUR LIFE/THE LIVES OF THOSE AROUND YOU?

Oct. 07 Oct. 11 Oct. 17
Definitely 9 7 13
Probably 30 26 32
Probably not 34 35 26
No 12 23 16
It is difficult to say 16 9 13

Electoral Ratings

IF THE RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION WERE TO BE HELD NEXT SUNDAY, WOULD YOU VOTE? IF SO, WHICH CURRENT POLITICIAN WOULD YOU VOTE FOR? (the percentages include ALL respondents; OPEN-ENDED question—the respondents provided the last names of politicians THEMSELVES and WERE NOT prompted or given a list of politicians; single-answer question; arranged in descending order from October 2017)*

Oct. 07** Oct. 11 Aug. 17 Sept. 17 Oct. 17
Putin 35 34 48 52 53
Zhirinovsky 2 5 2 2 3
Navalny  –  – 1 1 2
Zyuganov 4 6 2 2 2
Shoygu <1 1 <1 1
Medvedev 5 9 <1 <1 <1
Sobchak  –  – <1
Mironov <1 1 <1 <1 <1
Yavlinsky <1 <1 <1 <1 <1
Other 10 2 1 1 <1
I don’t know for whom I would vote 26 24 24 23 20
I wouldn’t vote 7 11 10 9 11
I don’t know whether or not I would vote 10 10 11 9 9

*The sum of the figures in the above columns may deviate from 100% by ± 2 due to rounding. This is considered to be an acceptable degree of deviation.

**In October 2007, the following were placed in the “Other” category: Sergei Ivanov – 5%, Nikolai Zubkov – 2%, and all others receiving less than 1%.

IF THE RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS WERE TO BE HELD NEXT SUNDAY, WOULD YOU VOTE? IF SO, WHICH CURRENT POLITICIAN WOULD YOU VOTE FOR? (The percentages include those respondents who were ready to vote at the time of polling; respondents provided the last names of politicians THEMSELVES; single-answer question; arranged according to October 2017)*

Oct. 07 Oct. 11 Aug. 17 Sept. 17 Oct. 17
Putin 42 42 60 64 66
Zhirinovsky 2 6 2 2 3
Navalny 2 1 2
Zyuganov 5 7 3 2 2
Shoygu <1 <1 1 <1 1
Medvedev 6 11 <1 <1 <1
Sobchak <1
Mironov <1 1 <1 <1 <1
Yavlinsky <1 <1 1 <1  <1
Other 11 2 1 1 <1
I don’t know for whom I would vote 32 30 30 28 25

Ksenia Sobchak’s Candidacy

HAVE YOU HEARD THAT KSENIA SOBCHAK ANNOUNCED HER CANDIDACY FOR THE 2018 RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL RACE? IF SO, IS IT POSSIBLE THAT YOU MIGHT PERSONALLY VOTE FOR HER IN THE UPCOMING PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION? (single-answer question)

Oct. 17
I heard about this and might vote for Ksenia Sobchak 4
I heard about this but wouldn’t vote for Ksenia Sobchak 58
I haven’t heard about this but might vote for Ksenia Sobchak 5
I haven’t heard about this and wouldn’t vote for Ksenia Sobchak 32
It is difficult to say 2

HAVE YOU HEARD THAT KSENIA SOBCHAK ANNOUNCED HER CANDIDACY FOR THE 2018 RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL RACE? IF SO, IS IT POSSIBLE THAT YOU MIGHT PERSONALLY VOTE FOR HER IN THE UPCOMING PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION? (single-answer question)***

Answer distribution for the following question: “If the Russian presidential elections were to be held next Sunday, would you vote? If so, which current politician would you vote for?”
“Putin Supporters” I don’t know for whom I would vote I wouldn’t vote I don’t know whether or not I would vote
I heard about this and might vote for Ksenia Sobchak 3 3 5 1
I heard about this but wouldn’t vote for Ksenia Sobchak 62 60 49 44
I haven’t heard about this but might vote for Ksenia Sobchak 3 6 8 10
I haven’t heard about this and wouldn’t vote for Ksenia Sobchak 31 29 36 41
It is difficult to say 2 1 3 3

***As a result of the limited number of respondents who would vote for Aleksei Navalny if the election were held next Sunday, it was not possible to track any “shifts in the electorate”: how inclined or disinclined his supporters now were to vote for Ksenia Sobchak after she announced her candidacy.

Translated by Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey (formerly Monterey Institute of International Studies).

The ANO Levada Center has been forcibly included in the registry of non-commercial organizations acting as foreign agents.  Read the Director of the Levada Center’s statement of disagreement with this decision here.

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