Are Meaningful Public Opinion Polls Possible in Today’s Russia?

Ever since Vladimir Putin announced the start of a special military operation (SMO), public opinion polls in Russia have been criticized with renewed vigor. Usually, critics give the following reasons why Russian polls cannot be trusted. Some argue that in 2022, the response rate has declined sharply and people’s reluctance to participate in surveys has increased. Others say that respondents interrupt interviews as soon as the conversation turns to events in Ukraine. Some say that only supporters of the government are now participating in the polls, while opposition-minded citizens prefer to abstain. Others speak of survey list experiments, which seem to show lower support rates, and claim that these show the “real mood” of the people. Finally, the most extreme critics of polls say that polls are not relevant because they do not show what people “really think.” Let us take a look at each of these allegations in turn.

Conversations with friends and discussion of Ukrainian events

Most often, respondents talk to friends about routine matters: children, work and household. One in five likes to talk about politics. At the same time, about half of the respondents discuss the topic of the “special operation” with their family and friends. However, most are not ready to engage in conversations about this with strangers. This is similar to how respondents discuss other socio-political topics.

Conflict with Ukraine: Assessments for March 2023

In March, there was a slight decrease in attention to the events in Ukraine and support for the actions of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, while support remains high. In addition, compared to last fall, there is a decrease in the proportion of those who fear the announcement of general mobilization. About half of the respondents still support the transition to peace talks, and almost the same number support the continuation of hostilities.

Attitude to countries: February 2023

In relation to the USA, the EU and Ukraine, negative assessments prevail among respondents. As before, there is a noticeable difference in opinions by age. Positive assessments are typical for China, India and Turkey.