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Maidan and Russia–Ukraine relations

This survey took place between 22 and 25 January 2016 and was conducted throughout all of Russia in both urban and rural settings. The survey was carried out among 1600/800 people over the age of 18 in 137 localities of 48 of the country’s regions.  The survey was conducted as a personal interview in respondents’ homes. The answer distribution is presented as percentages of the number of participants along with data from previous surveys. The statistical error of these studies does not exceed 3.4/4.1%%.

Maidan: Two years later

DID YOU FOLLOW THE PROTESTS IN KIEV TWO YEARS AGO (THE “MAIDAN PROTESTS”)? (N=800)*

  Dec.13 Jan.14 Jan.16
Very closely 4 9 13
Somewhat closely 21 35 36
Not very closely 40 40 35
Not at all 17 10 11
Haven’t heard anything about this 18 6 5

IN YOUR OPINION, WHAT HAPPENED IN KIEV AT THAT TIME? (as a percentage of those respondents who followed the protests)*

  Jan.14 Jan.16
A peaceful protest 4 8
An attempt at violent coup 84 80
It is difficult to say 12 12

IN YOUR OPINION, WHAT, LED PEOPLE TO PROTEST IN KIEV AT THAT TIME? (multiple answers; as a percentage of those respondents who followed the protests)*

  Dec.13 Jan.14 Jan.16
Influence of the West, attempting to pull Ukraine into the western  political orbit 41 44 46
Nationalistic feelings 27 35 27
Anger at Yanukovich’s corrupt regime 9 14 21
A desire to free Ukraine from Russia economically and politically, become independent 12 10 15
Desire to make Ukraine a civilized country like other European nations 13 8 15
Feeling of dignity at odds with authorities’ abuse of power 9 7 10
Protest of Ukrainian riot police/brutality of internal troops 5 4
Other 2 2 2
It is difficult to say 16 13 9

* In 2013-2014 these questions were phrased in the present tense: “Are you following…,” “What is happening…,” “what is leading…”

Perception of events in Ukraine. Crimea

ARE YOU FOLLOWING RECENT EVENTS IN UKRAINE? (N=1600)

  2013 2014 2015 2016
XII XII I II

13-16

III

20-23

III

IV V VII VIII IX X XI I
Very closely 4 13 16 15 13 17 14 13 15 13 12 9 10 8
Quite closely 21 35 43 43 35 40 33 37 36 32 31 32 27 25
Not very closely 40 41 35 33 40 34 38 37 38 41 43 42 46 48
Not at all 17 9 5 9 11 8 14 11 11 14 12 16 16 16
I haven’t heard anything about them 18 1 1 1 1 1 <1 2 1 1 2 1 2 4

CAN YOU SAY THAT YOU UNDERSTAND THESE EVENTS? (as a percentage of those respondents who follow the events)

  7-10
March
2014
21-24 March
2014
Apr.14 May.14 Jun.14 Jul.14 Aug.14 Jan.16
Very well 3 7 4 6 8 7 6 4
Somewhat well 26 36 31 30 33 37 34 23
Not very well 53 45 50 49 47 45 48 52
Not at all. I don’t know what to believe and what not to believe 15 10 12 12 10 8 9 17
It is difficult to say 3 2 3 3 3 3 4 4

DO YOU SUPPORT RUSSIA’S ANNEXATION OF CRIMEA? (N=1600)

  2014 2015 2016
XII I II III IV V VII VIII IX XI I
Definitely yes 50 50 52 55 55 56 51 50 54 48 47
Probably yes 36 34 32 33 34 29 33 33 30 35 36
Probably no 7 8 9 6 6 7 8 10 9 11 9
Definitely no 3 4 3 2 2 2 3 2 3 3 4
It is difficult to say 4 4 4 4 4 6 4 5 4 3 4

IN YOUR OPINION, HAS THE ANNEXATION OF CRIMEA DONE MORE GOOD OR BAD FOR RUSSIA? (N=1600)

  Mar.15 Aug.15 Nov.15 Jan.16
More good 70 59 59 61
More bad 18 23 22 20
It is difficult to say 12 18 18 19

HOW WOULD YOU CHARACTERIZE THE PRESENT SITUATION IN UKRAINE? (N=1600)

  Oct.15 Nov.15 Jan.16
Good 1 4 2
Quiet 11 11 10
Tense 64 60 65
Critical, volatile 15 19 14
It is difficult to say 9 7 9

IN YOUR OPINION, HOW WILL THE SITUATION IN EASTERN UKRAINE CHANGE OVER THE COMING YEAR? (N=1600)

  Nov.15 Jan.16
It will improve 14 13
It will worsen 24 27
It will remain the same 46 44
It is difficult to say 15 16

IN YOUR OPINION, ARE THERE CURRENTLY RUSSIAN TROOPS IN UKRAINE? (N=1600)

  Sept.14 Nov.14 Feb.15 Jul.15 Jan.16
Yes 29 25 25 26 27
No 49 53 53 52 52
It is difficult to say 23 22 22 22 21

DO YOU AGREE THAT THERE IS CURRENTLY WAR BETWEEN RUSSIA AND UKRAINE? (N=1600)

  Apr.14 Aug.14 Feb.15 Jan.16
Yes 34 26 34 25
No 57 59 60 65
It is difficult to say 9 15 7 11

WITH WHICH OF THE FOLLOWING OPINIONS ON RUSSIA-UKRAINE RELATIONS DO YOU MOST AGREE? (N=1600)

  Russia’s relations with Ukraine should be like those with other countries – closed borders, visas, customs Russia and Ukraine should be independent but friendly nations with open borders, no visas or customs Russia and Ukraine should unite into one country It is difficult to say
Jan.16 32 52 11 5
Sept.15 25 59 8 7
May 15 30 54 10 6
Jan.15 33 52 8 8
Sept.14 26 62 7 5
May.14 28 54 12 6
Mar.14 16 50 28 7
Jan.14 19 59 16 6
Oct.13 23 55 16 6
May.13 19 58 15 8
Jan.13 13 64 18 6
Sept.12 14 60 20 6
May.12 17 62 14 7
Jan.12 16 61 16 8
Sept.11 16 63 14 6
May.11 16 64 15 5
Jan.11 20 61 13 6
Sept.10 16 60 18 6
May.10 17 64 13 6
Jan.10 25 55 14 6
Sept.09 25 55 13 7
May.09 25 55 14 6
Jan.09 29 51 12 8
Sept.08 24 52 13 11
Mar.08 19 56 19 6

Translated by Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey (formerly  Monterey Institute of International Studies).

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