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Expectations for the coming year

This survey took place between December 13–19, 2018 and was conducted throughout all of Russia in both urban and rural settings. The survey was carried out among 1600 people over the age of 18 in 136 localities of 52 of the country’s regions. The survey was conducted as a personal interview in respondents’ homes. The answer distribution is presented as percentages of the number of participants along with data from previous surveys.

The statistical error of these studies for a selection of 1600 people (with a probability of 0.95) does not exceed:

3.4% for indicators around 50%
2.9% for indicators around 25%/75%
2.0% for indicators around 10%/90%
1.5% for indicators around 5%/95%

HOW DO YOU THINK THE COMING YEAR WILL BE FOR YOU IN COMPARISON WITH THE PAST YEAR? (the year in question is listed)

Definitely better I really hope that it will be better I don’t think it will be worse I doubt anything will change Next year might be worse than this one It is difficult to say
2019 8 50 17 17 5 4
2018 6 49 22 14 3 6
2017 7 46 20 18 4 5
2016 5 41 22 19 8 5
2015 6 40 22 17 10 4
2014 5 48 22 16 3 6
2013 6 50 21 16 2 5
2012 6 50 21 17 3 4
2011 9 49 20 12 4 6
2010 9 48 19 13 4 7
2009 6 43 20 15 11 6
2008 11 45 17 18 6 3
2007 8 41 17 25 5 4
2006 6 46 18 19 7 4
2005 8 38 13 26 12 3
2004 7 47 21 19 3 4
2003 5 45 24 19 4 3
2002 7 42 22 20 5 4
2001 6 51 18 17 4 4
2000 6 46 17 18 6 7
1999 2 27 14 27 23 8
1998 4 31 20 25 9 11
1997 5 28 12 30 19 7
1996 4 33 19 25 12 7
1995 6 36 15 20 15 9
1994 6 42 11 23 11 7
1993 4 34 12 19 24 7
1992 2 23 7 18 44 7
1991 1 25 5 19 37 12
1990 4 40 12 22 13 9

DO YOU FEEL HOPEFUL, UNCERTAIN, OR ANXIOUS ABOUT THE COMING YEAR, 2019?

Jan. 03 Jan. 13 Jan. 14 Jan. 15 Jan. 16 Jan. 17 Jan. 18 Dec. 18
Hopeful 50 51 51 47 43 57 62 64
Uncertain 21 24 25 24 26 23 18 14
Anxious 25 20 19 25 28 17 16 20
It is difficult to say 4 5 5 4 4 3 4 2

DO YOU THINK THE CURRENT YEAR, 2018, WILL BE CALM OR CHALLENGING FOR YOU AND YOUR FAMILY? (the year in question is listed)

2006 2007 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2018 2019
Definitely calm 12 13 13 7 11 9 7 4 10 14
Likely calm 48 46 51 48 54 55 41 33 48 46
Likely challenging 22 17 15 29 15 17 35 41 29 28
Definitely challenging 5 2 4 2 2 1 5 11 4 6
I don’t know 14 22 18 14 19 18 12 11 9 7

DO YOU THINK THE CURRENT YEAR, 2018, WILL BE CALM OR CHALLENGING FOR RUSSIA’S ECONOMY? (the year in question is listed)

2006 2007 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2018 2019
Definitely calm 6 9 6 2 7 7 3 1 6 4
Likely calm 37 37 40 24 39 41 17 10 25 21
Likely challenging 34 24 25 48 29 28 52 52 49 46
Definitely challenging 7 5 5 7 3 2 19 29 10 19
I don’t know 17 26 25 18 22 22 9 8 10 10

DO YOU THINK THE CURRENT YEAR, 2018, WILL BE CALM OR CHALLENGING FOR POLITICAL LIFE IN RUSSIA? (the year in question is listed)

2006 2007 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2018 2019
Definitely calm 5 8 7 2 7 5 4 3 5 4
Likely calm 34 34 36 20 38 42 18 14 25 22
Likely challenging 32 24 27 47 27 27 47 45 44 43
Definitely challenging 7 6 5 14 5 2 19 26 14 20
I don’t know 22 28 25 17 24 25 12 13 12 12

IS IT POSSIBLE THAT IN THE COMING YEAR, RUSSIA WILL FACE… (the year being assessed is indicated)

… AN ECONOMIC CRISIS?

2006 2007 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2018 2019
Definitely 5 3 7 2 6 6 20 11 12 14
Probably 24 18 28 37 33 32 42 36 38 43
Probably not 45 44 40 34 37 40 20 27 29 26
Definitely not 13 12 7 7 8 5 5 6 5 6
I don’t know 12 22 19 19 16 17 13 20 16 10

… LARGE-SCALE TECHNOLOGICAL DISASTERS?

2007 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Definitely 7 7 5 8 6 5 6 4 6 5
Probably 34 36 46 43 38 28 31 23 30 26
Probably not 28 32 26 26 33 38 33 38 36 42
Definitely not 8 5 6 6 5 8 10 15 9 11
I don’t know 24 20 18 16 19 21 20 21 20 17

… LARGE-SCALE EPIDEMICS?

2007 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Definitely 4 6 3 4 4 4 4 4 5 3
Probably 26 28 33 27 24 19 18 22 25 19
Probably not 37 39 36 37 44 46 43 42 41 45
Definitely not 10 8 9 12 9 15 17 15 13 19
I don’t know 23 20 19 20 19 15 19 17 16 15

… HIGH-PROFILE CORRUPTION SCANDALS AND THE DISMISSAL OF VARIOUS MINISTERS?

2007 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Definitely 14 13 10 16 17 9 10 14 16 14
Probably 46 47 50 55 48 42 43 46 47 48
Probably not 16 18 21 15 17 26 21 19 20 18
Definitely not 5 4 4 4 3 7 9 7 6 5
I don’t know 19 19 14 11 16 16 16 14 11 14

…A COUP D’ETAT?*

1999 2006 2007 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Definitely 11 1 1 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 3
Probably 35 9 11 14 17 16 10 10 8 7 12 12
Probably not 26 44 39 40 45 43 51 36 36 42 46 41
Definitely not 16 36 31 25 20 24 26 40 40 38 28 34
I don’t know 12 9 19 18 15 15 12 12 15 12 12 11

… LARGE-SCALE UNREST AND PUBLIC PROTESTS?

2007 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Definitely 5 6 6 5 6 4 4 2 5 8
Probably 27 40 50 45 37 28 27 19 30 36
Probably not 36 28 25 31 35 38 37 42 40 32
Definitely not 13 8 6 8 8 16 18 25 13 16
I don’t know 19 18 13 12 15 14 15 13 12 8

… LARGE-SCALE CONFLICT ON RUSSIAN SOIL?

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Definitely 6 4 4 2 4 3
Probably 42 26 26 15 25 20
Probably not 30 41 38 45 44 45
Definitely not 6 15 17 24 14 22
I don’t know 15 13 15 14 13 11

… ARMED CONFLICT WITH ONE OF RUSSIA’S NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES?

2006 2007 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Definitely 2 2 4 1 3 2 6 4 3 4 4
Probably 18 23 19 22 21 18 21 25 18 19 30
Probably not 44 38 38 42 40 44 39 34 43 48 38
Definitely not 22 16 18 17 18 15 19 16 20 13 16
I don’t know 14 22 21 19 18 20 15 21 17 15 13

… WAR WITH THE USA OR NATO?

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Definitely 5 2 2 4 2
Probably 11 11 8 19 17
Probably not 41 40 46 47 42
Definitely not 27 27 31 15 26
I don’t know 16 21 14 16 13

… A DETERIORATION OF THE SITUATION IN THE NORTH CAUCASUS?**

2006 2007 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Definitely 8 4 6 3 5 6 7 5 2 5 2
Probably 41 29 32 30 35 36 22 23 20 24 18
Probably not 27 36 28 34 30 30 38 37 41 46 45
Definitely not 9 6 8 8 9 5 13 12 17 8 17
I don’t know 17 24 26 25 22 23 20 24 20 17 18

* In 1998 the question was presented in the following way: “IN YOUR OPINION, HOW LIKELY IS A COUP D’ETAT TO OCCUR IN RUSSIA DURING THE COMING YEAR OR TWO?”

** In 2005 the question was presented in the following way: “IS IT POSSIBLE THAT IN THE COMING YEAR THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ARMED CONFLICT IN THE CAUCASUS REGION IN RUSSA?”

Translated by Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey (formerly Monterey Institute of International Studies).

The ANO Levada Center has been included in the registry of non-commercial organizations acting as foreign agents. Read the Director of the Levada Center’s statement of disagreement with this decision here.

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