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PROTESTS

This survey was carried out May 24–29, 2019 with a representative sample of all Russian urban and rural residents. The sample comprised 1616 people age 18 or older from 137 localities in 50 regions of the Russian Federation. The survey was conducted as a personal interview in respondents’ homes. The answer distribution is presented as percentages of the number of participants along with data from previous surveys.

The statistical error of these studies for a selection of 1600 people (with a probability of 0.95) does not exceed:

3.4% for indicators around 50%
2.9% for indicators around 25%/75%
2.0% for indicators around 10%/90%
1.5% for indicators around 5%/95%

The tables below show data for the last three years; all of the changes concerning the probability of protests in public opinion, beginning in 1994, and peoples’ readiness to participate in them can be seen in these indicators.

 IN YOUR OPINION, HOW POSSIBLE ARE LARGE-SCALE DEMONSTRATIONS IN YOUR CITY OR RURAL AREA AGAINST A DECLINE IN QUALITY OF LIFE AND IN DEFENSE OF PERSONAL RIGHTS? (one answer)

Feb. 17 April 17 Jun. 17 Sep. 17 Dec. 17 Mar. 18 Jul. 18 Nov. 18 Feb. 19 May 19
Entirely possible 19 27 28 26 23 17 41 37 34 26
Very unlikely 74 65 63 69 70 75 54 59 63 69
I don’t know, could not answer 6 8 9 5 7 8 6 5 4 5

IF THIS KIND OF LARGE-SCALE DEMONSTRATION OCCURRED, WOULD YOU PERSONALLY PARTICIPATE? (one answer)

Feb. 17 April 17 Jun. 17 Sep. 17 Dec. 17 Mar. 18 Jul. 18 Nov. 18 Feb. 19 May 19
I most likely would 12 16 15 14 13 8 28 30 26 27
I most likely would not 82 77 77 80 81 86 66 66 69 69
It is difficult to say 6 7 9 7 6 6 6 5 4 4

IN YOUR OPINION, IS IT POSSIBLE THAT A PROTEST WITH POLITICAL DEMANDS (DEMONSTRATION, RALLY, STRIKE) MIGHT BE HELD IN YOUR CITY/VILLAGE? (one answer)

Feb. 17 April 17 Jun. 17 Sep. 17 Dec. 17 Mar. 18 Jul. 18 Nov. 18 Feb. 19 May 19
Entirely possible 14 23 23 21 19 12 34 30 28 24
Very unlikely 79 71 68 73 74 80 60 65 68 71

I don’t know,

could not answer

7 6 9 6 7 8 6 5 4 5

IF LARGE-SCALE POLITICAL PROTESTS OCCURRED, WOULD YOU PERSONALLY PARTICIPATE? (one answer)

Feb. 17 April 17 Jun. 17 Sep. 17 Dec. 17 Mar. 18 Jul. 18 Nov. 18 Feb. 19 May 19
I most likely would 8 13 12 11 8 6 23 22 20 22
I most likely would not 87 81 80 82 85 88 72 74 75 74
It is difficult to say 5 6 8 7 7 6 5 4 5 4

HAVE YOU NOTICED ANY STRIKES, PROTESTS, RALLIES OR PICKETING IN THE PAST 2-3 MONTHS IN YOUR CITY/REGION? IF YOU HAVE, HOW DID YOU HEAR ABOUT THEM? (respondents were presented with a card from which they could choose more than one answer; ranked in descending order according to May 2019)

Mar. 18 Jul. 18 Sep. 18 Nov. 18 May 19
No, I haven’t noticed such events 88 74 69 80 87
Yes, I have noticed such events and learned about them from local media (local newspapers, radio, TV programs, internet sources) 4 10 12 8 6
Yes, I have noticed such events and heard about them from family, friends and acquaintances 3 9 11 6 4
Yes, I have noticed such events and learned about them from social media posts by eye-witnesses and participants 2 6 7 4 3
Yes, I have noticed such events and learned about them from state-run media (Russia-wide newspapers, central TV channels, radio stations, major Internet sources) 2 3 5 2 2
Yes, I have noticed such events and personally participated in them 1 2 4 2 2
Other <1 1 1 1 <1
It is difficult to say 4 2 1 1 1

DO YOU KNOW ABOUT THE FOLLOWING PROTESTS … (respondents were given a card; one answer in each line; ranked in descending order according to the column “I have been paying close attention to how this situation is developing”)

  I have been paying close attention to how this situation is developing I have heard something about it This is the first time I have heard about it It is difficult to say
Protests in Yekaterinburg against the construction of a church on the grounds of a park 17 42 41 1
Protests in Arkhangelsk against the construction of a landfill in Shiyes 8 27 65 1
Protests in Ingushetia against moving the border between Ingushetia and Chechnya 6 20 74 1

IN YOUR OPINION, HAS THE NUMBER OF PEOPLE UNHAPPY WITH THE GOVERNMENT LATELY INCREASED, DECREASED OR STAYED THE SAME? (one answer)

May 19
Increased 63
Decreased 6
Stayed the same 25
It is difficult to say 6

IN YOUR OPINION, HAS THE NUMBER OF PEOPLE HAPPY WITH THE GOVERNMENT LATELY INCREASED, DECREASED OR STAYED THE SAME? (one answer)

May 19
Increased 11
Decreased 51
Stayed the same 31
It is difficult to say 7

 

Total
sample
as a percentage of respondents, who have “closely followed” at least one of the three protests
Number of survey participants       1616 313
CURRENTLY, HOW POSSIBLE ARE LARGE-SCALE DEMONSTRATIONS IN YOUR CITY OR RURAL AREA AGAINST A DECLINE IN QUALITY OF LIFE AND IN DEFENSE OF PERSONAL PERSONAL RIGHTS?
Entirely possible 26 33
Very unlikely 69 65
Don’t know, couldn’t answer 5 2
IF LARGE-SCALE POLITICAL PROTESTS AGAINST A DECLINE IN THE QUALITY OF LIFE AND IN DEFENSE OF PERSONAL RIGHTS OCCURRED, WOULD YOU PERSONALLY PARTICIPATE OR NOT?
I most likely would 27 39
I most likely would not 69 57
It is difficult to say 4 4
IN YOUR VIEW, ARE POLITICAL PROTESTS (DEMONSTRATIONS, RALLIES, STRIKES) POSSIBLE IN YOUR CITY OR RURAL AREA?
Entirely possible 24 33
Very unlikely 71 62
Don’t know, couldn’t answer 5 5
IF LARGE-SCALE POLITICAL PROTESTS OCCURRED, WOULD YOU PERSONALLY PARTICIPATE?
I most likely would 22 34
I most likely would not 74 63
It is difficult to say 4 4
HAVE YOU NOTICED ANY STRIKES, PROTESTS, RALLIES OR PICKETING IN THE PAST 2-3 MONTHS IN YOUR CITY/REGION? IF YOU HAVE, HOW DID YOU HEAR ABOUT THEM?
No, I haven’t noticed such events 87 71
Yes, I have noticed such events and learned about them from local media (local newspapers, radio, TV programs, internet) 6 16
Yes, I have noticed such events and learned about them from state-run media (Russia-wide newspapers, central TV channels, radio stations, major Internet sources) 2 6
Yes, I have noticed such events and learned about them from social media posts by eye-witnesses and participants 3 6
Yes, I have noticed such events and heard about them from family, friends and acquaintances 4 8
Yes, I personally saw/participated in them 2 4
Other <1 1
It is difficult to say 1 1
IN YOUR OPINION, HAS THE NUMBER OF PEOPLE UNHAPPY WITH THE GOVERNMENT LATELY INCREASED, DECREASED OR STAYED THE SAME?
Increased 63 78
Decreased 6 5
Stayed the same 25 13
It is difficult to say 6 3
IN YOUR OPINION, HAS THE NUMBER OF PEOPLE HAPPY WITH THE GOVERNMENT LATELY INCREASED, DECREASED OR STAYED THE SAME?
Increased 11 11
Decreased 51 66
Stayed the same 31 19
It is difficult to say 7 4

Translated by Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey (formerly Monterey Institute of International Studies).

The ANO Levada Center has been included in the registry of non-commercial organizations acting as foreign agents. Read the Director of the Levada Center’s statement of disagreement with this decision here.

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