Press-releases

Protests

This survey was carried out August 22–28, 2019 with a representative sample of all Russian urban and rural residents. The sample comprised 1608 people age 18 or older from 137 localities in 50 regions of the Russian Federation. The survey was conducted as a personal interview in respondents’ homes. The answer distribution is presented as a percentage of the number of participants along with data from previous surveys.

The statistical error of these studies for a selection of 1600 people (with a probability of 0.95) does not exceed:

3.4% for indicators around 50%
2.9% for indicators around 25%/75%
2.0% for indicators around 10%/95%
1.5% for indicators around 5%/95%

Protest Potential

The tables below show data for the last three years; all of the trends concerning the probability of protests in public opinion, beginning in 1994, and peoples’ readiness to participate in them can be seen in these indicators.

IN YOUR OPINION, HOW POSSIBLE ARE LARGE-SCALE DEMONSTRATIONS IN YOUR CITY OR RURAL AREA AGAINST A DECLINE IN CITIZENS’ QUALITY OF LIFE AND IN DEFENSE OF PERSONAL RIGHTS? (one answer)

Jun. 17 Sep. 17 Dec. 17 Mar. 18 Jul. 18 Nov. 18 Feb. 19 May 19 Aug. 19
Entirely possible 28 26 23 17 41 37 34 26 34
Unlikely 63 69 70 75 54 59 63 69 62

I don’t know,

it is difficult to say

9 5 7 8 6 5 4 5 4

IF THESE KINDS OF LARGE-SCALE DEMONSTRATION OCCUR, WOULD YOU PERSONALLY PARTICIPATE OR NOT? (one answer)

Jun. 17 Sep. 17 Dec. 17 Mar. 18 Jul. 18 Nov. 18 Feb. 19 May 19 Aug. 19
I most likely would 15 14 13 8 28 30 26 27 27
I most likely would not 77 80 81 86 66 66 69 69 68
It is difficult to say 9 7 6 6 6 5 4 4 5

IN YOUR OPINION, IS IT POSSIBLE THAT A POLITICAL PROTEST (DEMONSTRATION, RALLY, STRIKE) MIGHT BE HELD IN YOUR CITY OR RURAL AREA? (one answer)

Jun. 17 Sep. 17 Dec. 17 Mar. 18 Jul. 18 Nov. 18 Feb. 19 May 19 Aug. 19
Entirely possible 23 21 19 12 34 30 28 24 30
Unlikely 68 73 74 80 60 65 68 71 65

I don’t know,

it is difficult to say

9 6 7 8 6 5 4 5 5

IF THESE KINDS OF LARGE-SCALE DEMONSTRATIONS OCCUR, WOULD YOU PERSONALLY PARTICIPATE OR NOT? (one answer)

Jun. 17 Sep. 17 Dec. 17 Mar. 18 Jul. 18 Nov. 18 Feb. 19 May 19 Aug. 19
I most likely would 12 11 8 6 23 22 20 22 20
I most likely would not 80 82 85 88 72 74 75 74 76
It is difficult to say 8 7 7 6 5 4 5 4 5

Protests in Moscow

DO YOU KNOW ABOUT THE PROTESTS IN MOSCOW RELATED TO CERTAIN CANDIDATES NOT BEING ALLOWED TO PARTICIPATE IN THE ELECTION TO THE MOSCOW CITY DUMA? (one answer)

Aug. 19
I have been paying close attention to how this situation is developing 16
I have heard something about it 47
This is the first time I’ve heard about this 37

HOW DID YOU LEARN ABOUT THE PROTESTS IN MOSCOW? (as a percentage of those who are following this and have heard something about it; respondents were given a card with a list and could name more than one answer and/or write in their own; ranked in descending order)

Aug. 19
Major TV channels like “Channel One,” “Russia-1,” “Russia-24,” “NTV” 55
Internet news sites 28
Social media 23
YouTube, vlogs 12
Family, friends, neighbors 11
Radio 7
Local media outlets 5
Small private/cable TV channels like RBC, “TV Rain” 4
Newspapers 3
Other <1
It is difficult to say 2

HOW DO YOU FEEL ABOUT THESE PROTESTS? (given to all participants; one answer)

Aug. 19
Positive 23
Neutral, indifferent 45
Negative 25
It is difficult to say 7

IN YOUR OPINION, WHAT MADE PEOPLE GO PROTEST? (given to all participants; respondents were given a card and could choose more than one answer; ranked in descending order)

Aug. 19
Dissatisfaction with the state of affairs in Russia 41
Dissatisfaction with government policies 34
Dissatisfaction with independent candidates not being allowed in the election 28
Dissatisfaction with the dispersion of the protests and police violence 15
Interest, curiosity, came to be with others 11
Many came because they were paid to do so* (“don’t know who”; “USA/EU/the West”; “protest organizers/the candidates”; “others”; “vested interests”; “Navalny”; “the opposition”; “the government/officials”) 11
Other 2
It is difficult to say 16

* If the respondent gave this answer, he or she was asked to clarify who exactly “paid”; answers in the parentheses are ranked from most to least frequently named responses.

AS YOU MAY KNOW, MORE THAN 1000 PEOPLE WERE DETAINED DURING THE PROTESTS IN MOSCOW. IN YOUR OPINION, HOW DID THE POLICE, OMON (SPECIAL PURPOSE MOBILE UNIT), AND THE NATIONAL GUARD ACT WHILE DETAINING THE PROTEST PARTICIPANTS? (given to all participants; one answer)

Aug. 19
They acted reasonably, within the law 32
They acted violently and used unjustified force 41
It is difficult to say 27

IN YOUR OPINION, WHY WERE SEVERAL DOZEN INDEPENDENT CANDIDATES NOT ALLOWED TO PARTICIPATE IN THE ELECTIONS TO THE MOSCOW STATE DUMA? (given to all participants; one answer)

Aug. 19
Because independent candidates were not able to collect the necessary number of signatures 30
Because the Moscow authorities are afraid of competition from independent politicians 45
Other 3
It is difficult to say 22

SOME RUSSIAN POLITICIANS MAINTAIN THAT THE PROTESTS IN MOSCOW OCCURED AS A RESULT OF WESTERN INTERFERENCE IN THE ELECTION CAMPAIGN. IN YOUR OPINION, HOW LIKELY IS THIS SORT OF INTERFERENCE? (respondents were given a card and could only give one answer)

Aug. 19
Western interference is one of the main reasons for the protests in Moscow 26
Even if there were attempts to interfere, it’s unlikely this had any effect 26
There was no Western interference in the Moscow elections, this is an attempt to slander the protesters 32
It is difficult to say 16

Attitudes Toward the Protests in Relation to Sources of Information

Total sample Source of information about the protests in Moscow
Major TV channels (“Channel One,” “Russia-1,” etc.) Internet sites + social media + vlogs
HOW DO YOU FEEL ABOUT THESE PROTESTS?
  1. Positive 23 18 40
  2. Neutral, indifferent 45 38 39
  3. Negative 25 40 18
  9. It is difficult to say 7 4 4
WHAT DO YOU THINK MADE PEOPLE GO PROTEST?
  1. Dissatisfaction with independent candidates not being allowed in the election 28 27 45
  2. Dissatisfaction with the dispersion of the protests and police violence 15 10 27
  3. Dissatisfaction with the state of affairs in Russia 41 36 51
  4. Dissatisfaction with government policies 34 28 47
  5. Interest, curiosity, came to be with others 11 14 10
  6. Many came because they were paid to do so 11 19 13
  7. Other 2 3 2
  8. It is difficult to say 16 12 4
IN YOUR OPINION, HOW DID THE POLICE, OMON (SPECIAL PURPOSE MOBILE UNIT), AND THE NATIONAL GUARD ACT WHILE DETAINING THE PROTESTERS?
  1. They acted reasonably, within the law 32 50 23
  2. They acted violently and used unjustified force 41 31 66
  9. It is difficult to say 27 19 12
WHY WERE SEVERAL DOZEN INDEPENDENT CANDIDATES NOT ALLOWED TO PARTICIPATE IN THE ELECTIONS TO THE MOSCOW STATE DUMA?
  1. Because independent candidates were not able to collect the necessary number of signatures 30 44 24
  2. Because the Moscow authorities are afraid of competition from independent politicians 45 36 63
  3. Other 3 5 4
  9. It is difficult to say 22 16 9
IN YOUR OPINION, HOW LIKELY IS IT THAT THE WEST INTERFERED IN THE ELECTION CAMPAIGN?
  1. Western interference is one of the main reasons for the protests in Moscow 26 41 21
  2. Even if there were attempts to interfere, it’s unlikely this had any effect 26 27 29
  3. There was no Western interference in the Moscow elections, this is an attempt to slander the protesters 32 22 44
  9. It is difficult to say 16 11 6

Translated by Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey (formerly Monterey Institute of International Studies).

The ANO Levada Center has been included in the registry of non-commercial organizations acting as foreign agents. Read the Director of the Levada Center’s statement of disagreement with this decision here.

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