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Expectations for 2020

This survey was carried out December 12–18, 2019 with a representative sample of all Russian urban and rural residents. The sample comprised 1608 people age 18 or older from 137 localities in 50 regions of the Russian Federation. The survey was conducted as a personal interview in respondents’ homes. The answer distribution is presented as percentages of the number of participants along with data from previous surveys.

The statistical error of these studies for a selection of 1600 people (with a probability of 0.95) does not exceed:

3.4% for indicators around 50%
2.9% for indicators around 25%/75%
2.0% for indicators around 10%/90%
1.5% for indicators around 5%/95%

HOW WILL THE COMING YEAR BE FOR YOU IN COMPARISON WITH THE YEAR THAT IS ENDING? (the year in question is listed)

Definitely better I really hope that it will be better I don’t think it will be worse I doubt anything will change Next year may well be worse than this last one It is difficult to say
2020 12 51 14 16 4 3
2019 8 50 17 17 5 4
2018 6 49 22 14 3 6
2017 7 46 20 18 4 5
2016 5 41 22 19 8 5
2015 6 40 22 17 10 4
2014 5 48 22 16 3 6
2013 6 50 21 16 2 5
2012 6 50 21 17 3 4
2011 9 49 20 12 4 6
2010 9 48 19 13 4 7
2009 6 43 20 15 11 6
2008 11 45 17 18 6 3
2007 8 41 17 25 5 4
2006 6 46 18 19 7 4
2005 8 38 13 26 12 3
2004 7 47 21 19 3 4
2003 5 45 24 19 4 3
2002 7 42 22 20 5 4
2001 6 51 18 17 4 4
2000 6 46 17 18 6 7
1999 2 27 14 27 23 8
1998 4 31 20 25 9 11
1997 5 28 12 30 19 7
1996 4 33 19 25 12 7
1995 6 36 15 20 15 9
1994 6 42 11 23 11 7
1993 4 34 12 19 24 7
1992 2 23 7 18 44 7
1991 1 25 5 19 37 12
1990 4 40 12 22 13 9

DO YOU FEEL HOPEFUL, UNCERTAIN, OR ANXIOUS ABOUT THE COMING YEAR, 2020?

  Jan. 03 Jan. 13 Jan. 14 Jan. 15 Jan. 16 Jan. 17 Jan. 18 Dec. 18 Dec. 19
Hopeful 50 51 51 47 43 57 62 64 71
Uncertain 21 24 25 24 26 23 18 14 11
Anxious 25 20 19 25 28 17 16 20 17
It is difficult to say 4 5 5 4 4 3 4 2 2

DO YOU THINK 2020 WILL BE A CALM OR A CHALLENGING YEAR FOR YOUR FAMILY AND YOU PERSONALLY? (the year in question is listed)

  2006 2007 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2018 2019 2020
Definitely calm 12 13 13 7 11 9 7 4 10 14 16
Likely calm 48 46 51 48 54 55 41 33 48 46 49
Likely challenging 22 17 15 29 15 17 35 41 29 28 24
Definitely challenging 5 2 4 2 2 1 5 11 4 6 4
I don’t know 14 22 18 14 19 18 12 11 9 7 6

DO YOU THINK 2020 WILL BE A CALM OR A CHALLENGING YEAR FOR RUSSIA’S ECONOMY? (the year in question is listed)

  2006 2007 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2018 2019 2020
Definitely calm 6 9 6 2 7 7 3 1 6 4 5
Likely calm 37 37 40 24 39 41 17 10 25 21 26
Likely challenging 34 24 25 48 29 28 52 52 49 46 45
Definitely challenging 7 5 5 7 3 2 19 29 10 19 12
I don’t know 17 26 25 18 22 22 9 8 10 10 12

DO YOU THINK 2020 WILL BE A CALM OR A CHALLENGING YEAR FOR POLITICAL LIFE IN RUSSIA? (the year in question is listed)

  2006 2007 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2018 2019 2020
Definitely calm 5 8 7 2 7 5 4 3 5 4 5
Likely calm 34 34 36 20 38 42 18 14 25 22 26
Likely challenging 32 24 27 47 27 27 47 45 44 43 41
Definitely challenging 7 6 5 14 5 2 19 26 14 20 14
I don’t know 22 28 25 17 24 25 12 13 12 12 14

IS IT POSSIBLE THAT IN THE COMING YEAR RUSSIA WILL FACE… (the year being assessed is indicated)

… AN ECONOMIC CRISIS?

  2006 2007 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2018 2019 2020
Definitely yes 5 3 7 2 6 6 20 11 12 14 11
Probably yes 24 18 28 37 33 32 42 36 38 43 38
Probably not 45 44 40 34 37 40 20 27 29 26 35
Definitely not 13 12 7 7 8 5 5 6 5 6 7
I don’t know 12 22 19 19 16 17 13 20 16 10 10

… LARGE-SCALE TECHNOLOGICAL DISASTERS?

  2007 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Definitely yes 7 7 5 8 6 5 6 4 6 5 6
Probably yes 34 36 46 43 38 28 31 23 30 26 27
Probably not 28 32 26 26 33 38 33 38 36 42 41
Definitely not 8 5 6 6 5 8 10 15 9 11 10
I don’t know 24 20 18 16 19 21 20 21 20 17 16

… LARGE-SCALE EPIDEMICS?

  2007 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Definitely yes 4 6 3 4 4 4 4 4 5 3 3
Probably yes 26 28 33 27 24 19 18 22 25 19 20
Probably not 37 39 36 37 44 46 43 42 41 45 47
Definitely not 10 8 9 12 9 15 17 15 13 19 16
I don’t know 23 20 19 20 19 15 19 17 16 15 14

… HIGH-PROFILE CORRUPTION SCANDALS AND THE DISMISSAL OF VARIOUS MINISTERS?

  2007 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Definitely yes 14 13 10 16 17 9 10 14 16 14 16
Probably yes 46 47 50 55 48 42 43 46 47 48 50
Probably not 16 18 21 15 17 26 21 19 20 18 18
Definitely not 5 4 4 4 3 7 9 7 6 5 6
I don’t know 19 19 14 11 16 16 16 14 11 14 10

…A COUP D’ETAT?*

  1999 2006 2007 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Definitely yes 11 1 1 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 2
Probably yes 35 9 11 14 17 16 10 10 8 7 12 12 11
Probably not 26 44 39 40 45 43 51 36 36 42 46 41 45
Definitely not 16 36 31 25 20 24 26 40 40 38 28 34 32
I don’t know 12 9 19 18 15 15 12 12 15 12 12 11 10

… WIDESPREAD UNREST AND PUBLIC PROTESTS?

  2007 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Definitely yes 5 6 6 5 6 4 4 2 5 8 7
Probably yes 27 40 50 45 37 28 27 19 30 36 38
Probably not 36 28 25 31 35 38 37 42 40 32 34
Definitely not 13 8 6 8 8 16 18 25 13 16 13
I don’t know 19 18 13 12 15 14 15 13 12 8 8

… WIDESPREAD INTER-ETHNIC CONFLICTS?

  2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Definitely yes 6 4 4 2 4 3 4
Probably yes 42 26 26 15 25 20 18
Probably not 30 41 38 45 44 45 50
Definitely not 6 15 17 24 14 22 19
I don’t know 15 13 15 14 13 11 10

… ARMED CONFLICT WITH ONE OF RUSSIA’S NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES?

  2006 2007 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Definitely yes 2 2 4 1 3 2 6 4 3 4 4 3
Probably yes 18 23 19 22 21 18 21 25 18 19 30 20
Probably not 44 38 38 42 40 44 39 34 43 48 38 45
Definitely not 22 16 18 17 18 15 19 16 20 13 16 22
I don’t know 14 22 21 19 18 20 15 21 17 15 13 11

… WAR WITH THE USA OR NATO?

  2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Definitely yes 5 2 2 4 2 1
Probably yes 11 11 8 19 17 13
Probably not 41 40 46 47 42 46
Definitely not 27 27 31 15 26 29
I don’t know 16 21 14 16 13 11

… A WORSENING OF THE SITUATION IN THE NORTH CAUCASUS?**

  2006 2007 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Definitely yes 8 4 6 3 5 6 7 5 2 5 2 2
Probably yes 41 29 32 30 35 36 22 23 20 24 18 14
Probably not 27 36 28 34 30 30 38 37 41 46 45 49
Definitely not 9 6 8 8 9 5 13 12 17 8 17 21
I don’t know 17 24 26 25 22 23 20 24 20 17 18 15

* In 1998 the question was presented as follows: “IN YOUR OPINION, HOW LIKELY IS A COUP D’ETAT TO OCCUR IN RUSSIA DURING THE COMING YEAR OR TWO?”

** In 2005 the question was presented as follows: “IS IT POSSIBLE THAT IN THE COMING YEAR THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ARMED CONFLICT IN THE CAUCASUS REGION IN RUSSIA?”

Translated by Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey (formerly Monterey Institute of International Studies).

The ANO Levada Center has been included in the registry of non-commercial organizations acting as foreign agents. Read the Director of the Levada Center’s statement of disagreement with this decision here.

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