Press-releases

PROTESTS IN BELARUS

This survey was conducted August 20–26, 2020 among a representative sample of all Russian urban and rural residents. The sample was comprised of 1601 people aged 18 or older in 137 municipalities of 50 regions of the Russian Federation. The survey was conducted as a personal interview in respondents’ homes. The distribution of answers is presented as percentages of the total number of respondents.

The statistical error of these studies for a sample of 1600 people (with a probability of 0.95) does not exceed:

3.4% for indicators around 50%
2.9% for indicators around 25%/75%
2.0% for indicators around 10%/90%
1.5% for indicators around 5%/95%

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS IN BELARUS TOOK PLACE ON AUGUST 9, 2020. PRESIDENT LUKASHENKO WAS DECLARED TO HAVE RECEIVED 80% OF THE VOTE, AND THE OPPOSITION CANDIDATE, TIKHANOVSKAYA, RECEIVED 10%. DO YOU THINK THE ELECTIONS WERE CONDUCTED FAIRLY OR UNFAIRLY? (one answer)

  Aug 20
Totally fairly 23
Mostly fairly 25
Largely unfairly 18
Totally unfairly 18
I (We) have not heard anything about this 3
It is difficult to say 12

WOULD YOU WANT ALEXANDER LUKASHENKO TO REMAIN PRESIDENT OF BELARUS OR AN OPPOSITION CANDIDATE TO BECOME PRESIDENT? (one answer)

  Aug 20
Alexander Lukashenko 57
Opposition candidate 17
I do not care 18
It is difficult to say 8

PROTESTS BEGAN AFTER THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. PROTESTERS BELIEVE THAT LUKASHENKO LOST AND ARE DEMANDING HIS RESIGNATION. WHAT IS YOUR ATTITUDE TO PEOPLE WHO COME OUT TO PROTEST? (one answer)

  Aug 20
Mostly positive 25
Neutral, indifferent 33
Mostly negative 39
It is difficult to say 3

FROM YOUR POINT OF VIEW, WHAT PROMPTED THE MASS PROTESTS IN BELARUS?  (respondents could choose more than one answer; ranked in descending order)

  Aug 20
This was a foreign provocation 39
Belorussians are tired of Alexander Lukashenko’s prolonged rule 28
This was a provocation of the Belarussian opposition 24
People are upset by the falsification of election results 23
People have become increasingly discontented with the deterioration of life in the republic 23
People are upset by the cruelty of the law enforcement authorities 17
Other 1
It is difficult to say 8

AS LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS DISPERSED DEMONSTRATIONS, THEY USED FORCE. WITH WHICH OF THE FOLLOWING VIEWS DO YOU AGREE? (one answer)

  Aug 20
They acted within the law 18
They were rough, but this is necessary to bring order 38
They beat people and there is no justification for this 35
It is difficult to say 9

IN YOUR OPINION, HOW SHOULD ALEXANDER LUKASHENKO ACT IN THESE CIRUMSTANCES? (respondents could choose one answer and/or name their own; ranked in descending order)

  Aug 20
Negotiate with protesters, find a compromise, and remain the head of state 58
Agree to negotiations with protesters concerning the transfer of power and resign 17
Suppress the protests with force and remain the head of state 12
Flee the country 5
Other 1
It is difficult to say 8

HOW DO YOU THINK ALEXANDER LUKASHENKO WILL ACT IN REALITY? (respondents could choose one answer and/or name their own)

  Aug 20
Negotiate with protesters, find a compromise, and remain the head of state 45
Suppress the protests with force and remain the head of state 35
Agree to negotiations with protesters concerning the transfer of power and resign 4
Flee the country 4
Other <1
It is difficult to say 12

DISTRIBUTION OF ANSWERS IN RELATION TO HOW RESPONDENTS PERCEIVE THE OUTCOMES OF THE ELECTION AND FROM WHERE THEY GET THEIR NEWS

  From where they most often get their news How the election went in Belarus
TV Friends, relatives, neighbors Internet, social media, Telegram Fairly Unfairly
Number of respondents       1110 298 945 772 581
DO YOU THINK THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS IN BELARUS WERE CONDUCTED FAIRLY OR UNFAIRLY?
Totally fairly 27 20 17  
Mostly fairly 29 26 23
Largely unfairly 17 18 23
Totally unfairly 11 19 24
I (We) have not heard anything about this 3 4 3
It is difficult to say 14 13 10
WOULD YOU WANT ALEXANDER LUKASHENKO TO REMAIN PRESIDENT OF BELARUS OR AN OPPOSITION CANDIDATE TO BECOME PRESIDENT?
Alexander Lukashenko 66 57 47 87 24
Opposition candidate 10 17 23 3 42
I do not care 17 18 21 8 23
It is difficult to say 7 8 9 3 11
WHAT IS YOUR ATTITUDE TO PEOPLE WHO COME OUT TO PROTEST AFTER BELARUS’S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION?
Mostly positive 17 27 33 6 56
Neutral, indifferent 34 34 35 30 29
Mostly negative 46 38 30 62 13
It is difficult to say 3 1 3 2 2
FROM YOUR POINT OF VIEW, WHAT PROMPTED THE MASS PROTESTS IN BELARUS?
People are upset by the falsification of election results 17 29 31 7 51
People have become increasingly discontented with the deterioration of life in the republic 20 27 28 15 36
Belorussians are tired of Alexander Lukashenko’s prolonged rule 23 33 35 15 49
People are upset by the cruelty of the law enforcement authorities 14 24 22 9 33
This was a foreign provocation 45 43 32 57 20
This was a provocation of the Belarussian opposition 27 26 23 36 12
Other 1 1 1 2 1
It is difficult to say 8 6 6 5 3
WITH WHICH OF THE FOLLOWING VIEWS CONCERNING THE USE OF FORCE BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS TO DISPERSE PROTESTS IN BELARUS DO YOU AGREE?
They acted within the law 22 18 13 29 8
They were rough, but this is necessary to bring order 42 33 37 48 28
They beat people and there is no justification for this 27 39 43 18 61
It is difficult to say 9 11 8 6 4
IN YOUR OPINION, HOW SHOULD ALEXANDER LUKASHENKO ACT IN THESE CIRCUMSTANCES?
Suppress the protests with force and remain the head of state 13 7 9 19 4
Negotiate with protesters, find a compromise, and remain the head of state 64 61 52 69 41
Agree to negotiations with protesters concerning the transfer of power and resign 11 18 23 4 39
Flee the country 2 4 7 2 10
Other 1 1 2 1 2
It is difficult to say 8 8 7 6 5
HOW DO YOU THINK ALEXANDER LUKASHENKO WILL ACT IN REALITY?
Suppress the protests with force and remain the head of state 31 35 40 28 48
Negotiate with protesters, find a compromise, and remain the head of state 51 47 39 57 30
Agree to negotiations with protesters concerning the transfer of power and resign 4 3 5 3 7
Flee the country 3 5 6 2 9
Other <1 <1 <1 <1 <1
It is difficult to say 12 10 10 10 7

Translated by Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey (formerly Monterey Institute of International Studies).

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