2022: potential for crisis events

Compared to 2020, the share of respondents who believe that in 2022 an economic crisis (+14%), major industrial disasters (+13%) and mass epidemics (+47%), has significantly grown. The number of Russians expecting ethnic conflicts, a war with NATO or neighbouring countries has also increased. Since 2017, the share of Russians expecting the year to bring corruption scandals and minister resignations as well as popular protests, has remained stable.

Can the following things possibly happen in Russia this year?

(year of survey)

Economic crisis?

Definitely yes537266201112141119
Probably yes 241828373332423638433844
Probably no454440343740202729263522
Definitely no 13127785565675
Can’t say12221919161713201610109

Major industrial disasters?

Definitely yes 7758656465611
Probably yes343646433828312330262735
Probably no 283226263338333836424131
Definitely no 8566581015911109
Can’t say 242018161921202120171614

Mass epidemics?

Definitely yes 4634444453323
Probably yes 262833272419182225192047
Probably no 373936374446434241454718
Definitely no 10891291517151319166
Can’t say 23201920191519171615146

High-profile corruption scandals and resignations of ministers?

Definitely yes 14131016179101416141621
Probably yes 464750554842434647485048
Probably no 161821151726211920181816
Definitely no 544437976565
Can’t say 191914111616161411141010

Coup d’etat?

Definitely yes 111133322223326
Probably yes 3591114171610108712121116
Probably no 2644394045435136364246414539
Definitely no 1636312520242640403828343229
Can’t say 129191815151212151212111010

Mass unrest and popular protests?

Definitely yes 5665644258711
Probably yes 274050453728271930363836
Probably no 362825313538374240323430
Definitely no 13868816182513161316
Can’t say 191813121514151312887

Ethnic conflicts?

Definitely yes 64424347
Probably yes 4226261525201828
Probably no 3041384544455037
Definitely no 615172414221919
Can’t say 151315141311109

Armed conflict with a neighbouring country?

Definitely yes 2241326434438
Probably yes 18231922211821251819302029
Probably no 44383842404439344348384535
Definitely no 22161817181519162013162218
Can’t say 14222119182015211715131110

Armed conflict with the USA/NATO countries?

Definitely yes 5224216
Probably yes 1111819171319
Probably no 41404647424637
Definitely no 27273115262926
Can’t say 16211416131112

Aggravation in the North Caucasus?

Definitely yes 8463567525225
Probably yes41293230353622232024181420
Probably no 27362834303038374146454939
Definitely no9688951312178172120
Can’t say17242625222320242017181516


The survey by the Levada Center was conducted December 16 – 22, among a representative sample of all Russian urban and rural residents. The sample was comprised of 1640 people aged 18 or older in 137 municipalities of 50 regions of the Russian Federation. The survey was conducted as a personal interview in respondents’ homes. The answer distribution is presented as percentages of the total number of participants along with data from previous surveys.

The statistical error of these studies for a sample of 1600 people (with a probability of 0.95) does not exceed:

3.4% for indicators around 50%

2.9% for indicators around 25%/75%

2.0% for indicators around 10%/90%

1.5% for indicators around 5%/95%

The ANO Levada Center is included in the registry of non-commercial organizations acting as foreign agents.


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