A new study confirmed the previously announced conclusions that the June 23-24 mutiny did not affect the ratings of the president but led to a decrease in public support for Sergei Shoigu. The attitude towards Yevgeny Prigozhin has deteriorated sharply, today only one in five respondents supports him. Sympathy for Prigozhin persists primarily among young and middle-aged men who use the Internet as the main means of information. The representatives of the older generation and viewers demonstrate the greatest condemnation. There is no clear opinion about the reasons for what happened. At the same time, slightly less than half of the respondents consider Prigozhin’s criticism of the military to be at least partially justified. In relation to PMCs “Wagner” positive assessments continue to prevail: two-thirds positively assess their participation in the Ukrainian conflict. At the same time, about a third of respondents expect that as a result of the events of 23-24 there will be consolidation around the government, the same number said about improving attitudes towards the Russian armed forces; however, about half expect that “everything will remain as before.” The telephone survey was conducted from June 28 to July 1.
The level of awareness about Yevgeny Prigozhin’s rebellion is quite high: 52% followed it closely, only 8% of respondents do not know anything about what happened.
Most of the respondents learned about the mutiny in the morning of June 24 (42%), about a quarter (23%) – on the night from Friday to Saturday, 17% – during the day of June 24, another 14% – either the day after the withdrawal of PMCs “Wagner” or later. Most of those who found out about the mutiny either on the night of June 23-24 or on the morning of June 24 are among respondents aged 18-24 and 25-39 (about 30% on the night, about 43% on Saturday morning), as well as among those who received information about these events via Telegram-channels (at night – 42%, on Saturday morning – 44%).
Respondents most often received information about the rebellion from the DV (44%), from friends/relatives/neighbors (29%), as well as from social networks and Telegram channels (23% each). However, the situation is reversed among the respondents aged 18-24: half of them received news about these events from Telegram channels more often, 43% – from social networks, respondents aged 25-39 more often learned about what happened from Telegram channels and from friends/relatives/neighbors (about a third of the respondents from this group).
Speaking about personal feelings caused by these events, respondents most often noted “anxiety, depression” (28%), “fear, horror, shock” (21%), “anger, outrage” (21%), while a fifth (22%) said that they did not experience no special feelings. Respondents attribute the same range of feelings to people around them.
Answering the question about the reasons for the actions of E. Prigozhin and PMCs “Wagner”, respondents noted that this was due to “Prigozhin’s personal ambitions” (21%), “Prigozhin’s reasonable claims” (20%), as well as due to “conflict, misunderstanding between the PMCs and the Ministry of Defense” (17%).
As a result of the events of June 23-24, the attitude towards the Russian Armed Forces improved (according to their own estimates) in 30% of respondents, worsened in 6%, the attitude towards V. Putin improved in 19%, worsened in 10%. Respondents were more likely to talk about the deterioration of their attitude than about the improvement of the PMCs “Wagner” (17% to 10%), S. Shoigu (28% to 7%) and E. Prigozhin (36% to 5%). At the same time, the majority of respondents have not changed their attitude to these actors.
Questions about trust in specific politicians show that in late June – early July, after the PMCs mutiny “Wagner”, the respondents most trusted V. Putin (76%), A. Lukashenko (70%) and S. Lavrov (68%). 43% trusted S. Shoigu, but 45% did not trust. In relation to E. Prigozhin, negative assessments prevailed: 22% trusted him, but 50% did not trust him.
Just over a quarter (26%) of respondents believe that many in Russia support E. Prigozhina after the incident, 43% hold the opposite opinion. Most of all supporters of the position that E. Prigozhin retains great support among Russians among respondents aged 18-24 (39%) and among those who received news about the rebellion on YouTube channels (39%), least of all among respondents 55 years and older (15%) and TV viewers (17%).
46% of respondents believe that criticism is Prigozhin’s appeal to the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation was justified, about a third (30%) adhere to the opposite. Most of all supporters of the position according to which the statements of E. Prigozhin’s views were fair, represented among respondents aged 18-24 (58%) and those who watched the mutiny on YouTube channels (66%). The respondents 55 years and older (38%) and TV viewers (36%) support this position the least.
About a third (32%) of respondents believe that due to the mutiny of the PMCs “Wagner ” there will be consolidation and strengthening of the state, 7% believe that the positions of the country’s leadership will weaken, a little more than half (51%) – that everything will be as before. The first opinion prevails significantly ahead of other age groups among respondents 55 years and older (43%), as well as among TV viewers (40%). The position on maintaining the status quo is more widely represented among the youngest respondents (59%) and readers of social networks (60%). The second position – about the weakening of the Russian government – was expressed more by respondents aged 18-24 (16%), as well as by readers of Telegram channels and viewers of YouTube channels (about 15%).
65% positively assess the participation of PMCs “Wagner” in the “special operation” in Ukraine – this assessment prevails in all socio-demographic groups, slightly less represented among respondents aged 18-24 and 55 years and older (about 62%) and viewers of YouTube channels (60%).