Press-releases

Conflict with Ukraine: Assessments for September 2023

In September 2023, less than half of the respondents closely followed the events in Ukraine. The ideas about what is happening are quite stable. The level of support for the actions of the Russian armed forces remains high(72%). Just like last month, there are slightly more supporters of the start of negotiations than there are supporters of the continuation of hostilities. The military actions in Ukraine at the same time cause Russians to be proud of Russia, as well as anxiety and fear. There is a high level of concern about the shelling of Russian territories – 91%, the supply of weapons to Ukraine by Western countries – 79%, the counteroffensive of Ukrainian troops – 62%. More than half of the respondents fear that a general mobilization may be announced.

In September 2023, the level of attention to Ukrainian events has not changed compared to last month. Thus, 18% of respondents say that they are following “very closely” (17% in August) and another 30% are following “quite closely” (31% in August). 37% of respondents follow without much attention, and 15% (17% in August) they don’t follow at all.

Do you follow the situation around Ukraine? (full table)

Mar.22Apr.22May.22Jun.22Jul.22Aug.22Sep.22Nov.22Dec.22Jan.23Mar.23Apr.23May.23Jun.23Jul.23Aug.23Sep.23
Very closely2926222425213223272221242120231718
Somewhat closely3533343131303435323532313334363130
Not too closely2729333232342529303232323334313437
I don’t follow it at all8101013111481111111513121291715
I haven’t heard anything about it22111111111111111

Just like in other months, respondents from the older age group
(55 years and older) most closely follow events related to Ukraine: 63% members of this group follow them closely (25% of them follow them “very closely”). In the age group from 40 to 54 years, 47% of respondents are closely follow the events, as do 37% of people aged 25 to 39 and 25% of people aged 18 to 24. Men monitor the situation around Ukraine more often than women – 54% and 42%, respectively.

In September, support for the actions of the Russian armed forces in Ukraine did not change significantly: 41% definitely support (in August – 38%), 32% rather support (in August – 32%). Do not support – in total 20% (in August – 21%).

Do you personally support the actions of the Russian military Forces in Ukraine? (full table)

Feb.22Mar.22Apr.22May.22Jun.22Jul.22Aug.22Sep.22Oct.22Nov.22Dec.22Jan.23Feb.23Mar.23Apr.23May.23Jun.23Jul.23Aug.23Sep.23
Definitely yes4853454747484644444241454841434340453841
 Yes2028293028283028293230302931323333303232
No8888111081111111010101171010101211
Definitely no156119989109911979989899
Can’t say967657788786689687108

The highest level of support for the actions of the Russian armed forces in Ukraine is characteristic of the oldest age group (55 years and older), where almost half of the respondents (51%) “definitely support”, and 32% rather support them than not. Respondents from the youngest age group (18-24 years old) are the least supportive – 60%. 64% of respondents aged 25 to 39 declare their support, as do 70% of people aged 40 to 54.

Respondents who trust television are also more likely than others to support the actions of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in Ukraine (80%). The lowest support for the actions of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in Ukraine among those surveyed who read the news in telegram channels; however, even here the majority shows support (65%).

Support differs mainly among those who approve and disapprove of the president’s activities. Among those who approve of his activities, 81% say they support the actions of the Russian armed forces in Ukraine, and those who disapprove – 35%.

As in previous months (with the exception of May 2023), there are slightly more supporters of the transition to peace negotiations than opponents, in September the first – 51% of respondents (in August – 50%), and the share of respondents supporting the continuation of hostilities – 39% (in August – 38%).

Do you think it is necessary to continue military actions or proceed to peace negotiations? (full table)

Sep.22Oct.22Nov.22Dec.22Feb.23Mar.23Apr.23May.23Jun.23Jul.23Aug.23Sep.23
Definitely continue military actions292224272726263026252425
Rather continue military actions151417131616131814161414
Rather start negotiations273131292929292830272728
Definitely start negotiations212622212119231723242323
Can’t say87610711117781211

The opinion that it is necessary to start peace negotiations prevails at all ages, but most often it is demonstrated by representatives of the youngest age group (18-24 years) – 66%. In the oldest age group (55 years and older), the opinion about the continuation of hostilities and the transition to peace negotiations is almost equal – 47% and 44%, respectively.

Half of the men surveyed believe that it is necessary to continue military operations. Women, on the other hand, are more inclined to move to peace negotiations – 58%, 30% of the women surveyed are in favor of continuing military operations.

Among those approving the activities of V. Putin there is no dominant opinion – 43% support the continuation of military operations and 46% support the transition to peace negotiations. The majority (72%) of those who disapprove of the president’s activities believe that it is necessary to move on to peace negotiations.

Moscow stands out against the background of settlements other sizes. Muscovites are less willing to move on to peaceful negotiations – only 35%, while in other localities about half of the respondents believe that it is necessary to start peace negotiations.

Compared with the last measurement, the level of concern among Russians about the possibility of shelling of Russian territories by the Armed Forces of Ukraine has not changed and remains high – 91% (93% in March), supplies of weapons by Western countries to the Armed Forces of Ukraine – 79% (80% in March), the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine – 62% (67% in March).

Over the past six months, the number of Russians fearing universal mobilization has not changed significantly. 59% of respondents are afraid of mobilization, 37% are not afraid. Women are almost twice as likely to fear that a general mobilization will be announced.  Less often than others, men and residents of the capital are afraid of general mobilization.

The military actions in Ukraine mainly cause Russians: pride for Russia (38%), anxiety, fear and horror (34%). Since the beginning of the SVO, the proportion of Russians who are proud of Russia for Russia’s actions in Ukraine is gradually decreasing and the number of those who feel anger and indignation against the background of the conflict is increasing. 

Pride in Russia is mainly felt by men (44%), the older generation of the polled (39% in the 39-54 age group, 45 among respondents over 55), as well as those who approve of the president’s activities (45%) and receive news through television (45%).

Anxiety, fear and horror are experienced mainly by women (49%), those who do not approve of the activities of V. Putin (31%), respondents under 24 (34%), respondents aged 25 to 39 (40%), reading news on social networks (43%) and telegram channels (40%).

METHODOLOGY

The all-Russian survey by the Levada Center was conducted September 21 – 27 2023, among a representative sample of all Russian urban and rural residents. The sample was comprised of 1633 people aged 18 or older in 137 municipalities of 50 regions of the Russian Federation. The survey was conducted as a personal interview in respondents’ homes. The distribution of responses is given as a percentage of the total number of respondents.

The statistical error of these studies for a sample of 1600 people (with a probability of 0.95) does not exceed:

3.4% for indicators around 50%

2.9% for indicators around 25%/75%

2.0% for indicators around 10%/90%

1.5% for indicators around 5%/95%

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