Press-releases

Conflict with Ukraine: September 2022

After the announcement of partial mobilization, attention to the Ukrainian events and concern about what is happening have increased dramatically. The news about the partial mobilization caused fear in society. Support for the actions of the Russian military remains high, but the number of those who advocate the start of negotiations has increased.

Awareness and concern

At the end of September, the share of people closely monitoring the situation around Ukraine has increased significantly: 32% are following “very closely” (21% in August) and another 34% are following “quite closely” (30% in August).

Respondents from the older age group (55 years and older) are most closely following events related to Ukraine – 78% are closely following the events. In the age group from 40 to 54 years, 57% of respondents are closely follow the events, as do more than a half of people aged 25 to 39 and 45% of people aged 18 to 24.

Concern about the Ukrainian events has also grown and reached peak values. In September, 88% of respondents expressed concern: 56% said they were “very worried” about current events (37% in August), another 32% were “rather worried” (37% in August).

Support of the Special Military Operation

The level of support for the actions of the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine decreased slightly – from 76% in August to 72% in September: 44% “definitely support” the actions of the Russian armed forces and another 28% “rather support”. A total 21% of respondents do not support them (17% in August).

The greatest support for the actions of the Russian armed forces in Ukraine is observed among the older age group – 81% support; the lowest level of support is typical for young respondents (18-24): 55% of them express support.

44% of respondents believe that military operations should be continued: 29% are “definitely” sure of it, 15% are “rather” sure of it. On the contrary, 48% of respondents believe that peace negotiations should be initiated. In August, 48% of respondents were in favor of continuing military actions, and 44% were in favor of starting peace negotiations.

About partial mobilization

The prevailing feelings about the partial mobilization announced in the Russian Federation are “anxiety, fear, horror” (47%), “shock” (23%), “pride for Russia” (23%) and “anger, indignation” (13%). Only 9% of respondents said they were indifferent.

Two-thirds of respondents fear that due to the fighting in Ukraine, a general mobilization in Russia will be announced: they are definitely afraid – 36%, rather – 30%. In February, immediately after the announcement of the start of the “special operation”, 28% of respondents expressed such concerns – half as much.

About the Ukrainian Army offensive

77% of respondents know about the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) in the Kharkiv region: just over a quarter (26%) closely followed the developments, half (51%) have heard something about it. The older groups of the population are the most knowledgeable.

The most characteristic feelings of respondents from reports about the advancement of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kharkiv region were: “anxiety, fear, horror” (35%), “anger, indignation” (20%) and “shock” (12%).

About the progress of the Special Military operation

In September, the share of those who believe that the “special military operation” is progressing successfully decreased. In May there were 73% of them, in September – 53%: 9% believe that it is progressing very successfully, 44% – that it is rather successful. About a third (31%) are of the opinion that the “special operation” is unsuccessful.

Speaking about the unsuccessful progress of the “special operation”, respondents explain this by the fact that it “has been going on for six months, and there is no end in sight” (27%), there is “mobilization, they began to call” (23%), “we lose, we give up land, we do not advance, we retreat” (22%).

METHODOLOGY

The survey by the Levada Center was conducted September 22 – 28 2022, among a representative sample of all Russian urban and rural residents. The sample was comprised of 1631 people aged 18 or older in 137 municipalities of 50 regions of the Russian Federation. The survey was conducted as a personal interview in respondents’ homes. The answer distribution is presented as percentages of the total number of participants along with data from previous surveys.

The statistical error of these studies for a sample of 1600 people (with a probability of 0.95) does not exceed:

3.4% for indicators around 50%

2.9% for indicators around 25%/75%

2.0% for indicators around 10%/90%

1.5% for indicators around 5%/95%

The ANO Levada Center is included in the registry of non-commercial organizations acting as foreign agents.

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