Press-releases

Conflict with Ukraine: Assessments for October 2023

The level of attention to Ukrainian events has not changed for three months; about half of Russians follow the events. The level of support for the actions of the Russian armed forces has increased slightly. The highest level of support is demonstrated by older respondents who trust television and those who approve of the president’s activities. More than half of the respondents believe that the Special Military Operation is progressing successfully. At the same time, the number of supporters of peace negotiation has slightly increased over the past month (up to 55%). Respondents name as the main reason for starting the Special Military Operation “to protect the residents of Donbass”. The majority are confident that hostilities will continue for at least another six months (almost half say more than a year). If respondents had the opportunity to go back in time and influence the decision to start a Special Military Operation, then 41% would cancel such a decision, and 43% would support it. The majority are ready to support V. Putin if he announces the end of hostilities, but on the condition that new territories are preserved.

In October 2023, the level of attention to Ukrainian events has not changed compared to last month. Thus, 20% of respondents say that they are following the events “very closely” (18% in September) and another 29% are following “quite closely” (30% in September). 35% of respondents follow without much attention, and 15% do not follow at all. People aged 55 and older are following the events in Ukraine most closely (28% – very carefully, 33% quite carefully).

Are you following the situation around Ukraine? (full table)

Mar.22Apr.22May.22Jun.22Jul.22Aug.22Sep.22Nov.22Dec.22Jan.23Mar.23Apr.23May.23Jun.23Jul.23Aug.23Sep.23Oct.23
Very closely292622242521322327222124212023171820
Somewhat closely353334313130343532353231333436313029
Not too closely272933323234252930323232333431343735
I don’t follow it at all810101311148111111151312129171515
I haven’t heard anything about it221111111111111111

The level of support for the actions of the Russian armed forces in Ukraine remains high and hasn’t changed significantly since the beginning of the conflict: in October, 76% (73% in September) answered that they definitely support or rather support. Do not support – in total 16% (in August – 20%).

Do you personally support or not the actions of the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine? (full table)

Feb.22Mar.22Apr.22May.22Jun.22Jul.22Aug.22Sep.22Oct.22Nov.22Dec.22Jan.23Feb.23Mar.23Apr.23May.23Jun.23Jul.23Aug.23Sep.23Oct.23
Definitely yes485345474748464444424145484143434045384145
 Yes202829302828302829323030293132333330323231
No88881110811111110101011710101012119
Definitely no1561199891099119799898997
Can’t say9676577887866896871088

The level of support is higher among older respondents (55 years and older) – 82% definitely or rather support (55%); among those who trust television as a source of information (88% express support); approves of the activities of the President of Russia (85%).

While the level of support is lower among young people (18-24 years old) – 62% (28% definitely support); among those who trust YouTube channels (63%); and disapprove of the activities of the president (35%)

In October, 62% believe that the Special Military Operation is progressing successfully (12% – very successfully, 50% rather successfully), its number slightly raised through the last 5 months 21% hold the opposite point of view.

The assessment of the success of the Special Military Operation is different depending on the sources of information that respondents trust. So, among those who trust television, 15% believe that the Special Military Operation is progressing very successfully and 59% – rather successfully, among users of telegram channels the division is 8% and 56%, respectively, among viewers of YouTube channels – 9% and 40%, respectively.

Through the past 4 months, opinions on the need to continue military operations or start peace talks have not changed much – 55% believe that peace talks should be started (51% in September), 38% for the continuation of military operations (39% in September).

The opinion that it is necessary to start peace negotiations prevails at all ages, but most often it is demonstrated by representatives of the youngest age group (18-24 years) – 69%. In the oldest age group (55 years and older), the opinion about the continuation of hostilities and the transition to peace negotiations is almost equal – 45% and 46%, respectively.

The majority of women believe that it is necessary to move to negotiations (62%), among men there is no dominant opinion: 48% are in favour of continuing military actions, 47% are in favour of moving to negotiations.

Those who trust information from television (46%) and Telegram channels (41%) are most often in favour of continuing military operations, while those who trust information from social networks (65%) and YouTube channels (69%) are most often in favour of a transition to

negotiations.

Moscow stands out against the background of settlements other sizes. Muscovites are less willing to move on to peaceful negotiations – only 38%, while in other localities about half of the respondents believe that it is necessary to start peace negotiations.

Among those who approve the activities of V. Putin there – 42% support the continuation of military operations and 51% support the transition to peace negotiations. The majority (72%) of those who disapprove of the president’s activities believe that it is necessary to move on to peace negotiations.

According to the data of the open-ended question (respondents were not offered prompts, answers were recorded from their words and then coded), a quarter of Russians (25%) believe that Russia launched the special military operation in order to: “to protect/free the inhabitants of Donbas/Russian people”, according to 14% of respondents – to “eradicate fascism, exterminate Nazism”. Another 13% of respondents speak about defense against aggression of Ukraine and Western countries.

Previously, this question was asked in February 2023.

Russians are confident that military operations will continue for a long time. Thus, almost half of the respondents (46%) said that the SMO will last for more than a year, 23% of respondents said that it will continue for six months to a year. 22% found it difficult to answer.

If respondents had the opportunity to go back in time and cancel or support the start of a military operation in Ukraine. 43% would support it (21% would definitely support it), and 41% would cancel it (23% would definitely cancel it).

Young respondents under 24 years old (56%) would more often be ready to cancel SMO. Above all, representatives of the oldest age group (55 years and older) – 51% would support the decision to start. In addition, the share of those who would support the special operation if they had an opportunity to return to the past is slightly higher among Muscovites (55%) than among residents of other localities. Among those who support the actions of the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine 24% responded that they would have cancelled the start of SMO. At the same time, among those who do not support the actions of the armed forces, 12% noted that they would support the start of the SMO.

An experiment was carried out as part of this survey. Using a random number generator, the respondents were divided into two equal groups, each of which was asked a question in one of two formulations. The experiment showed that the majority of respondents (70%) would support V. Putin’s decision if the president decided to end the military conflict with Ukraine. However, if V. Putin had decided to end the conflict on condition of returning the annexed territories, only one third (34%) of Russians would have supported his actions.

МЕТОДОЛОГИЯ

The all-Russian survey by the Levada Center was conducted October 19 – 25 2023, among a representative sample of all Russian urban and rural residents. The sample consisted of 1633 people aged 18 or older in 137 municipalities of 50 regions of the Russian Federation. The survey was conducted as a personal interview in respondents’ homes. The distribution of responses is given as a percentage of the total number of respondents.

The statistical error of these studies for a sample of 1600 people (with a probability of 0.95) does not exceed:

3.4% for indicators around 50%

2.9% for indicators around 25%/75%

2.0% for indicators around 10%/90%

1.5% for indicators around 5%/95%

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