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Conflict with Ukraine: Assessments for April 2024

Half of Russians continue to monitor the situation around Ukraine more or less closely. The level of support for the Russian Armed Forces remains high, they are supported by three quarters of Russians. After a short decline at the beginning of the year, the share of Russians who advocate peace talks began to recover — now it is almost 50 %. At the same time, if the resident had decided to stop military operations already “this week”, the majority (71%) would have supported his decision. However, this share is reduced to 30% if the return of new territories became a condition for the end of the conflict. Russians are not always able to adequately assess how widespread their own views on the “special operation” are in society.

After a certain surge of attention to the Ukrainian conflict last month, the proportion of people who continue to follow what is happening more or less closely has returned to the level of half the population (53%). The situation is more often monitored in the group of older respondents (55 years and older) – 67%, those who trust television as a source of information – 65%, residents of Moscow – 60% and those who approve of the activities of V.Putin as president – 56%.

Russians aged 25-39 follow the situation without much attention or do not follow the situation at all – 63%, those who trust social networks as a source of information – 54%, residents of large cities (with a population of 500 thousand people or more) – 48% and those who disapprove of the activities of V.Putin as president – 58%.

Since September 2023, the level of support for the Russian armed forces in Ukraine has been hovering around 75%. Older respondents (55 years and older) are more likely to speak about the support of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation – 79%, those who trust television as a source of information – 84%, residents of cities with a population of 100-500 thousand people – 78% and those who approve of the activities of V.Putin as president – 82%.

Russians aged 25-39 years – 23%, who trust YouTube as a source of information – 28%, residents of small towns (with a population of up to 100 thousand people) – 19%, and especially those who disapprove of the activities of the V. Putin as president – 55%.

After a short decline at the beginning of the year, the share of Russians who advocate peace talks began to recover — now it is almost 50 %. The share of those who believe that it is necessary to continue military operations has changed little over the same period, today it is 39%. 

There are more supporters of the transition to peace negotiations in the youth group (18-24 years old) – 61%, those who trust social networks as a source of information – 61%, residents of rural settlements – 55% and those who disapprove of the activities of V.Putin as president – 77%.

The situation is more often monitored in the group of older respondents (55 years and older) – 67%, those who trust television as a source of information – 65%, residents of Moscow – 60% and those who approve of the activities of V.Putin as president – 56%.

As part of the April survey, the experiment conducted six months ago was repeated. Using a random number generator, the respondents were divided into two equal groups, each of which was asked a question in one of two formulations. The experiment showed that the majority of respondents (71%) would support V. Putin’s decision, if “next week” he decided to end the military conflict with Ukraine (in October 2023 – 70%). However, if V. Putin decided to end the conflict on condition of the return of the annexed territories, less than a third of Russians would support his decision (30%, in October 2023 – 34%).

Compared with the previous measurement, an increase in the proportion of “definitely support” responses regarding the termination of the conflict (by 7 %) and the proportion of “definitely not support” responses regarding the termination of the conflict, subject to the return of territories (by 6 percentage points) can be noted.

For a year and a half, Russians’ perceptions of how widespread their own views on the “special operation” are among the general population have practically not changed. Thus, more than half of the respondents (57%, in August 2022 – 54%) believe that the majority holds the same views on the special operation as they do, a quarter (25%) believe that half of Russians share their views, and only 5% are sure that most other residents of Russia hold opposite views.

The following discrepancy in views is noteworthy: although a smaller part of Russians supports the idea of continuing military operations, three quarters of them believe that the majority of the population holds the same opinion (which does not correspond to the results of the survey). Among respondents who do not support the actions of the Russian armed forces, up to a third (35%) also believe that the majority of the country’s population thinks the same way (which does not correspond to the results obtained).

METHODOLOGY

The survey by the Levada Center was conducted April 18 – 24  2024, among a representative sample of all Russian urban and rural residents. The sample consisted of 1603 people aged 18 or older in 137 municipalities of 50 regions of the Russian Federation. The survey was conducted as a personal interview in respondents’ homes. The distribution of responses is given as a percentage of the total number of respondents. The data set is weighted by gender, age, level of education for each type of settlement (large cities, medium cities, small towns, villages) within each Federal district independently, in accordance with Rosstat data.

The statistical error of these studies for a sample of 1600 people (with a probability of 0.95) does not exceed:

3.4% for indicators around 50%

2.9% for indicators around 25%/75%

2.0% for indicators around 10%/90%

1.5% for indicators around 5%/95%

Learn more about the methodology

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